The 2027 CWELCC cost-based funding formula has not been confirmed. The federal-provincial agreement that will govern the next program period is still being negotiated. No benchmark schedule has been published for 2027. No growth rates have been officially announced.
And yet, with four months remaining in 2026, operators across Ontario are already asking the right question: what will my 2027 allocation look like?
It is the right question to be asking now. Capital decisions, staffing plans, lease renewals, and expansion commitments made in the final months of 2026 will shape your cost structure heading into 2027. Understanding your likely funding position before you make those decisions is not premature planning. It is sound financial management.
ChildcareFundingIQ has built a 2027 forecast tool directly into the platform so you can run that analysis today.
What the 2027 Forecast Tool Does
The 2027 Forecast tab in the Scenario Analysis section of the platform generates an estimated 2027 allocation using the same benchmark growth rates that applied from 2025 to 2026, applied to the 2026 benchmark values.
The forecast starts with a base case that automatically inherits your current 2026 inputs: your licensed spaces, operating spaces, service days, and base fee rates. This base case shows you what your 2027 allocation would look like with no operational changes, driven entirely by benchmark growth.
From there, you can adjust:
- Operating spaces per age group, up to your licensed capacity
- Service days per age group, up to a maximum of 261
- Base fee rates per age group, subject to the CWELCC cap
Each adjustment recalculates your estimated 2027 allocation in real time, showing you the funding impact of operational decisions before you make them.
The tool also calculates your estimated 2027 rolling top-up. In 2026, your growth top-up and any rolling top-up from 2025 are carried forward as a rolling top-up ratio in 2027. The forecast applies that ratio to your estimated 2027 benchmark to project the rolling top-up component of your 2027 allocation.
The output is a side-by-side comparison showing your 2026 allocation and your estimated 2027 allocation, including the year-over-year dollar change and percentage change across every major component.
What the Benchmark Growth Rates Assume
The 2027 forecast uses the following growth rates applied to 2026 benchmark values:
- Program staffing benchmarks grow at the same rates applied from 2025 to 2026: 8.1% for infant, 6.1% for toddler and family, 5.9% for preschool, and 9.6% for kindergarten
- The supervisor benchmark grows at 8.9%
- Operations fixed and variable benchmarks grow at rates between 1.8% and 2.1% depending on age group and setting
- Accommodations benchmarks grow at 2.0% across all age groups and settings
- Staffing and supervisor ancillary multipliers remain unchanged
These rates are based on publicly available 2026 benchmark data and the year-over-year growth that produced those benchmarks from 2025. They are reasonable planning assumptions. They are not confirmed Ministry figures.
The Critical Disclaimer
Every output from the 2027 Forecast tool carries the following disclaimer, which operators should keep front of mind when using the results for planning:
"This forecast assumes 2026-to-2027 benchmark growth rates consistent with 2025-to-2026 published rates. The 2027 CWELCC funding formula and benchmark schedule have not yet been confirmed by the Ministry of Education. All figures are estimates for planning purposes only."
The 2027 agreement could change the benchmark structure materially. The C.D. Howe Institute has proposed a shift to income-tested fees. The ACE 10-point framework has proposed replacing the cost-based reimbursement model with standardized per-space operating grants. Either structural change would make the growth-rate assumptions in this tool irrelevant.
What the tool gives you is a baseline planning figure assuming continuity of the current framework. If the 2027 agreement produces a materially different funding model, the forecast will be updated when that information is available.
Why Running the Forecast Matters Now
Understanding your estimated 2027 allocation in September 2026 gives you four months to make decisions that affect that outcome.
If your base case shows a meaningful increase from 2026 to 2027 driven by benchmark growth, you have confidence to make operating commitments based on the higher funding level.
If your base case shows a flat or declining allocation relative to your current costs, you have time to understand why and what levers are available to address it before 2027 begins.
If you are considering expanding operating spaces in 2027, the tool lets you model the funding impact of that expansion against the estimated 2027 benchmark before you commit to the staffing and operational changes required.
If your rolling top-up ratio from 2026 is significant, understanding how it carries forward into 2027 is essential for planning. A high rolling top-up in 2026 suggests your cost structure materially exceeds your benchmark. That gap will persist into 2027 unless your cost structure changes or the benchmark grows faster than your costs.
How to Access the 2027 Forecast
The 2027 Forecast is available to all platform users in the Scenario Analysis section. It is not behind the paid tier. Every operator with a ChildcareFundingIQ account can run the 2027 forecast for their centre.
Sign up free at childcarefundingiq.ca, enter your 2026 operating data, and navigate to the Scenario Analysis tab. The 2027 Forecast section will automatically populate with your base case.
If you want help interpreting your 2027 forecast, understanding the rolling top-up carry-forward calculation, or modelling specific operational scenarios for 2027, our consulting services provide direct operator-side support.
Sign up free at childcarefundingiq.ca and run your 2027 forecast today.
Learn more about our consulting services
Learn More →Note: The 2027 CWELCC benchmark schedule has not been published by the Ontario Ministry of Education as of the date of this post. All 2027 figures generated by the ChildcareFundingIQ platform are estimates based on 2025-to-2026 benchmark growth rates and are subject to change when the 2027 funding formula is confirmed.