Child Care Now released its national growth report on June 1, 2026, tracking the expansion of licensed child care across Canada during the first phase of CWELCC implementation. The report draws on the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives' Childcare Licensing and Accessibility by Region database, which compiles licensing data from every province on a semi-annual basis.
The data covers the period from the end of 2022 through the third quarter of 2025 and provides the most comprehensive national picture of what CWELCC has actually produced in terms of licensed space creation.
For Ontario licensed child care centre operators, several findings deserve careful attention. Not all of them tell the story the advocacy organizations want to tell.
111,000 New Spaces Nationally, But the Target Was 250,000
Canada added 111,656 net new licensed spaces for children aged zero to five between the end of 2022 and the third quarter of 2025. That represents a 16.5 per cent increase in licensed capacity over roughly three years.
The federal government committed to creating over 250,000 new spaces by March 31, 2026. The program achieved less than half that target in the timeframe.
The growth that did occur was concentrated heavily in one age group. Of the 111,656 net new spaces, 82.4 per cent were full-day preschool spaces. Infant spaces represented only 14.6 per cent of net growth and toddler spaces only 8 per cent. Part-day preschool spaces actually declined.
For operators with infant and toddler programs, this matters. The system is adding preschool capacity rapidly while the age groups with the highest benchmark rates per space-day, infants and toddlers, are growing far more slowly. The competitive pressure on preschool programs will intensify as supply approaches demand in that age group in ways it has not yet for younger children.
Two Thirds of New Spaces Are For-Profit
The report's most politically charged finding is also its most consequential for understanding the current policy environment: of the 111,656 net new spaces created between 2022 and 2025, 66.7 per cent were created by for-profit operators. Not-for-profit expansion accounted for 32.2 per cent and public provision for only one per cent.
As a result, the overall share of for-profit spaces in Canada's licensed child care system increased from 52.7 per cent in 2022 to 54.8 per cent in 2025. The program that was explicitly designed to expand non-profit provision has overseen a two-percentage-point increase in for-profit market share in three years.
The federal CWELCC agreements stated a preference for non-profit and public expansion. The capital funding directed toward non-profit operators was intended to accelerate that shift. The data shows the opposite has occurred.
This tension is the central political problem heading into the next agreement negotiations. Advocacy organizations will use this data to argue for stronger restrictions on for-profit expansion. The data itself demonstrates that without for-profit growth, the system would have created roughly 37,000 net new spaces instead of 111,000.
For for-profit operators in Ontario, the political pressure this creates is real. The evidence that non-profit capital funding produced only one third of actual space growth will be inconvenient for those arguing that restricting for-profit operators is compatible with meeting space creation targets.
Ontario Is the Only Large Province Without a Long-Term Deal
This is the finding in the report that has received the least attention and carries the most direct implication for Ontario operators.
As of December 2025, eleven provinces and territories have signed new five-year CWELCC agreements running from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2031. Ontario and Alberta are the only two jurisdictions that signed one-year extensions to March 31, 2027.
Think about what that means in practice. A licensed child care centre operator in Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, or PEI is planning on the basis of a confirmed funding framework through 2031. They know their fee cap, their benchmark trajectory, and the broad terms of the program for the next five years.
An Ontario operator is planning to March 31, 2027. Nine months from now.
This planning asymmetry has direct financial consequences. An operator in any other province can sign a multi-year lease, commit to RECE hiring and retention plans, apply for capital improvements, and negotiate with their SSM on the basis of a stable five-year program. An Ontario operator cannot make those same commitments with the same confidence.
The report does not draw this comparison explicitly. But the data makes it unavoidable. Ontario operators are being asked to deliver child care under the same administrative requirements and fee caps as operators in other provinces, while carrying a planning horizon that is roughly a fifth as long.
Ontario's For-Profit CWELCC Participation Gap
The report contains a finding specific to Ontario that is distinct from every other province: Ontario is the only jurisdiction where there is a notable difference in CWELCC participation rates between for-profit and non-profit operators.
Nationally, the large majority of full-day spaces for children zero to five are funded by CWELCC. In Ontario, only approximately 75 per cent of for-profit spaces are CWELCC-funded, compared to near-universal participation among non-profit providers.
The report acknowledges that this reflects a combination of operator choice and SSM allocation decisions. Some Ontario for-profit operators have chosen not to participate. Others have not been approved because the province has not allocated sufficient CWELCC spaces to their service area.
The 25 per cent of Ontario for-profit spaces operating outside CWELCC are your direct competitors without a fee cap. They charge market rates. They face none of the administrative requirements, eligible cost restrictions, or reconciliation obligations that enrolled operators navigate. In Toronto, where market rates for infant care have historically reached $80 to $100 per day, the revenue differential between an enrolled and non-enrolled centre of the same size is substantial.
This is not a reason to opt out. CWELCC funding, WEG, WCF, and fee subsidy eligibility for families represent real value. But it is the honest competitive context within which enrolled Ontario operators are operating.
Family Child Care Is Growing Fast and Competing for the Same Age Groups
The report documents a development that centre-based operators in Ontario should track carefully. Ontario's regulated family child care capacity nearly doubled between 2021 and 2025, growing from 12,734 to 23,032 spaces.
Family child care's share of Ontario's regulated system grew from 2.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent. That is still a small share, but the rate of growth, roughly 80 per cent over four years, is significantly faster than centre-based growth.
Family child care operates under different cost structures than centre-based programs. Home-based providers typically have lower accommodation costs and different staffing requirements. Under CWELCC's cost-based funding formula, they receive allocations calculated on a different basis from centre-based operators.
For operators in markets where family child care is expanding rapidly, particularly in suburban and rural areas of Ontario, this represents genuine competition for the preschool-age families that represent the fastest-growing segment of licensed space creation.
The Preschool Concentration Problem
The data showing 82.4 per cent of national growth concentrated in preschool spaces deserves more attention than it has received.
Under the CWELCC cost-based funding formula, preschool spaces have the lowest Schedule A staffing benchmark per space-day of the three eligible age groups for children under six. Infant spaces carry the highest benchmark, reflecting the higher staffing ratios required under O. Reg. 137/15 (one staff for every three children under 18 months). Preschool spaces require one staff for every eight children.
The concentration of new space creation in preschool reflects the economics of child care provision. Preschool spaces are cheaper to staff, easier to fill, and faster to open. But as preschool supply approaches demand in major markets, the operators whose programmes are predominantly preschool will face increasing occupancy pressure.
Operators with strong infant and toddler programmes, by contrast, are in a demand environment that is less likely to face a supply overhang in the near term. Infant spaces grew by only 16,344 nationally in three years. The waitlists for infant care in Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton remain among the longest in the system.
If your centre has capacity to shift operating spaces from preschool to toddler or infant programs through an alternate capacity arrangement approved by your SSM, the funding and competitive environment both support considering it. The scenario analysis tools in ChildcareFundingIQ model the exact allocation impact of that conversion before you approach your SSM.
Get Started Free →What the Report Does Not Discuss But Should
The Child Care Now report is funded in part by Employment and Social Development Canada and reflects the perspective of an organization that advocates for publicly funded, non-profit child care. It does not make the following observations, which the data supports.
For-profit operators created two thirds of the actual space growth while being excluded from capital funding. If the goal is space creation, the data argues for including for-profit operators in capital funding, not restricting them further.
Ontario's planning uncertainty is a policy failure. Every other large province has a five-year deal. Ontario operators are being asked to make long-term commitments under a nine-month planning horizon.
The preschool concentration is not an accident. It reflects the incentive structure of the current formula. Operators respond to financial incentives. If the program wants more infant spaces, the benchmark rates for infants need to be high enough relative to the staffing cost that creating infant spaces is financially viable.
The Bottom Line for Ontario Operators
The Child Care Now growth report confirms several things that matter directly for your planning.
Ontario is in a structurally different position from every other province. The combination of a one-year agreement, an ongoing $10 billion funding dispute with Ottawa, and a September 2026 deadline for confirmed next-agreement terms creates uncertainty that operators in other provinces simply do not face.
For-profit growth is the system's supply engine, whether the program acknowledges it or not. Two thirds of new spaces came from the sector that faces the most regulatory scrutiny and the least capital support. That tension will shape the next agreement.
Preschool competition will increase. Infant and toddler demand will remain strong. The age group mix of your licensed capacity matters more now than it did three years ago.
Your 2026 allocation is confirmed and calculable regardless of what the next agreement looks like. The most productive response to a nine-month planning horizon is to understand your current year position precisely, use every provision of the formula that applies to your centre, and enter the September deadline period with clean financials and a documented eligible cost record.
Source: Child Care Now, Growth Report: Tracking Expansion of Licensed Child Care in the First Phase of Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care, June 1, 2026. Data from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Childcare Licensing and Accessibility by Region database.